The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification
نویسندگان
چکیده
We establish that the Phillips curve is persistence-dependent: inflation responds differently to persistent versus moderately (or transient) fluctuations in unemployment rate gap. This persistence-dependent relationship appears align with business-cycle stages and thus consistent existing theory. Previous work fails model this dependence, thereby finding numerous "inflation puzzles" – e.g., missing inflation/disinflation noted literature. Our specification eliminates these puzzles; for example, has not weakened, nor was "stubbornly low" 2019. The model's coefficients are stable, it provides accurate conditional recursive forecasts through Great Recession. There important monetary policy implications.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Working paper
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['2381-6287']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-201909r2